I think if there were no restrictions and take-downs were allowed and it was a straight up match, then Inoki would have had a pretty easy time in "taking out" Ali. I'm not sure what set of rules could have been used though to keep it as even as possible as I think a boxer is always at a disadvantage in these matches unless the rules allow for no kicks. I think Inoki was being a little too cautious IMO as I'm sure he could have went in with some kicks and strikes and survived the shots that Ali would have given him. Was clinching and grappling allowed in this match? If so Inoki could have just gotten in close enough where Ali's punches would not have an effect and his boxing gloves would have been a detriment. Or Inoki could have shot low at Ali's legs and taken him down. I think Inoki could have done this quite easily with Ali only getting a couple of shots to the back of the head, but I don't think they would have had much effect as Inoki would be in on him very quickly with Ali trying to punch at a target in a position that he's not accustomed to trying to hit. Someone who is low to the ground and not standing toe to toe with him. Again Ali's gloves would prove disastrous for him if Inoki ever got in close with a clinch or taken him down. But on the other hand, all as it would take is one good punch by Ali to end it. In the end Inoki had to be the favorite IMO and I also believe had more to lose in a fight like this. I think the public would give Ali a pass if he lost this match as most would have thought it was fixed anyway with a pro wrestler involved. Inoki though was very proud of his "martial arts" background and training and the way the Japanese are with honor and everything, Inoki would have had a hard time losing this fight. I not sure if his popularity would ever be the same and his aura of invincibility would be gone. I think Baba would then be remembered as being the better of the two then. It would have been a huge boost for Baba and co IMO. Not sure if Puroresu as a whole would have taken a hit if Inoki lost. Who knows though.
I think it could have gone either way, but in the end I think Inoki was the favorite. I don't think anyone could match Ali's speed, and you are right about the 1 punch. A lot of the debate about if Ali is better than Mike Tyson is saddled on the fact that Ali was a VERY smart and savvy fighter. The Rope-a-Dope is a classic strategy. I think even if there was a takedown, if Ali could maintain his calm, and didn't get submitted, he's capable of getting a ground KO. On the flipside, I maintain that wrestlers are among the top fighters PERIOD. Even today most MMA fighters use a combination of kickboxing (or Muay Thai), Judo (or Vale Tudo), and wrestling. I think even if kicks were taken away, Inoki had the power in his slaps still. I don't think Inoki would have used strikes much, and in the end Inoki would have gotten an arm and tried to submit Ali........Would Ali have given up????
I have my doubts either would give up. I think the ref though would have been knowledgeable enough and been instructed to stop the fight if either got the other in a position where some "real" damage or serious injury were about to occur.
But really who knows, maybe Ali would be smart enough to know that he was about to get his arm, wrist, whatever broke and that his career would be ended so maybe he would "give up." You'd think if either(more-so Ali as I think Inoki wouldn't have been put in a position to give up as he either would have been knocked out or not knocked out. Ali wasn't the type of fighter who would be a threat to beating Inoki by submission)got in that predicament they would give up rather to risk having their days of making a payday in the ring ended.
BTW it's been a long time since I've sen the fight, who was the referee in that fight?